I don’t know how relevant this is now, but here’s a link to another post where I expressed my thoughts on what kind of pitfalls you might most likely face – https://lemmy.world/post/36867409
By the way, what is this phenomenon on Lemmy? Let’s say people are reluctant to read and comment on old posts published just a couple of days or a week ago, but with new ones, it’s a completely different story. What kind of psychology is this? Or it seemed to me?
More imports means currency devaluation/ inflation on the international market. This pushes interest rates up as people demand higher interest rates to counteract expected inflation. If I buy a bond at $500 and expect that $500 to be worth the equivalent of $400 in 5 years when it matures, I’ll demand a higher interest rate to counteract that loss in real value. If you want to see an economy that reliant on imports look at Venezuela during its first oil booms and tell me that’s a healthy economy.
That doesn’t increase production. If I’m a farmer in Weimar Germany and some guy is begging me to take his wheelbarrow full of cash for a potato that’s not going to make me produce more potatoes. That’ll just make me doubt the worth of that wheelbarrow worth of cash and think about how hard it will be for me to try and get someone to take that wheelbarrow full of cash so I can get a new plow. Im not going to put in the extra effort to make more potatoes so i can fill my shed with this money that i have to beg people to take and is probably worthless. Money is only as good as what you can buy with it and if it’s hard to buy stuff with it eg. Your begging people to take it, then it’s not worth anything.
If you completely reject supply side economics, what would have been the solution to stagflation? Harold Wilson’s government proved you couldn’t just add more money and increase wages to get out of it. It only made it worse.
Interest rates are more complicated than that. For any amount of US $ in the world, if no one ever wants to invest in US because no one wants to do any work anymore, then all of the $ will chase US bonds and chase down interest rates. US is on verge of collapse now, and interest rates are falling. US was on verge in 2009, and absurd QE program brought rates down. Europe had negative rates not long ago.
Manipulating rates is fairly easy, and in general, people/$ take whatever rates they are told to.
UBI can be funded with just tax credits. No money printing. Even if wheelbarrows become the new trusted currency, UBI of 10 wheelbarrows per month will make you rich in wheelbarrows if you are the only one willing to grow potatoes. There is still 0 rationale for UBI to result in wheelbarrow economy.
Whether production costs are lowered through imports, immigration, or automation, local production doesn’t matter. Local purchasing power matters. UBI increases purchasing power, and no political divisiveness over losing useless jobs. Apple being able to sell 3x the number of iphones is going to encourage them to open more apple stores, and pay what it takes to staff them.
You’ve decided to call a massive increase in wealth and freedom to be a technical stagflation problem.